Mixing time of an unaligned Gibbs sampler on the square

The paper concerns a particular example of the Gibbs sampler and its mixing efficiency. Coordinates of a point are rerandomized in the unit square ${[0,1]}^2$ to approach a stationary distribution with density proportional to $exp(?A^2{(u?v)}^2)$ for $(u,v)\in {[0,1]}^2$ with some large parameter $A$.Diaconis conjectured the mixing time of this process to be $O\left(A^2\right)$ which we confirm in this paper. This improves on the currently known $O(exp\left(A^2\right))$ estimate.     

Evaluating impacts of fish stock enhancement and biodiversity conservation actions on the livelihoods of small‐scale fishers on the Beijiang River,China

Inappropriate development and overexploitation have seriously degraded aquatic resources in China. Stakeholders identified three fish stock enhancement and biodiversity conservation scenarios for the Beijiang River: S1, increased fish restocking; S2, no fishing season and habitat conservation; and S3, strict pollution control. Potential impacts of these actions on the livelihoods of fishers were evaluated using applied economic modeling. Baseline costs and benefits came from logbooks from 30 fishers and a survey of 90 households in three villages. The financial net benefit for a household was US$1583 (￥11,160) annually, representing a 142% and 387% return on capital and operating costs, respectively. Larger catches associated with S1 and S2 generated a net benefit of US$1651 and US$1822, respectively. Strict pollution control resulting in higher catches (+20%) and lower operating costs (?20%) would increase the net benefit by 15.9% to US$1835 annually. Pollution control would benefit other resource users and is a prerequisite for ecological restoration. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Stringent pollution control measures are essential to conserve aquatic biodiversity and enhance the livelihoods of fishers but will require considerable public and private sector investment.
• Enhanced fish stocks in the Beijiang River could benefit poor livelihoods but may not be sufficient to lift households out of poverty, aged fishers require government assistance to diversify their livelihoods, access alternative urban employment, and survive with dignity.
• Adopting the economic modeling approach presented here could enable responsible authorities to simultaneously evaluate fish stock enhancement and biodiversity conservation options.
• Broader application of the approach presented here could help ensure small‐scale inland fisheries are managed sustainably and aquatic ecosystems are restored and protected by 2020, in line with Target 6 of the United Nations’ Convention on Biological Diversity Strategic Plan for Biodiversity.

     

脉冲电场测试中的激光供电技术

为解决脉冲电场测试系统中的供电问题，设计了一套激光光纤供电系统，该系统由激光器、多模光纤及光电池构成。重点研究了激光器与光纤的耦合问题，设计了透镜系统对激光器输出光束进行准直和压缩。通过MOCVD法研制了GaAs光电池，并制作了椭球形"光伏眼"来提高光电转换效率。仿真和实验表明:采用透镜耦合时，激光器与光纤的耦合效率可达80%以上，远远高于直接耦合时的16%，改进后的"光伏眼"耦合效率相比直接耦合时提高了54.5%，激光供电系统的转化效率在40%以上。该系统的研制为解决脉冲电场的供电问题提供了一种方案。     

Continuum versus discrete networks,graph Laplacians,and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces

Motivated by applications to machine learning, we construct a reversible and irreducible Markov chain whose state space is a certain collection of measurable sets of a chosen l.c.h. space $\mathfrak{X}$. We study the resulting network (connected undirected graph), including transience, Royden and Riesz decompositions, and kernel factorization. We describe a construction for Hilbert spaces of signed measures which comes equipped with a new notion of reproducing kernels and there is a unique solution to a regularized optimization problem involving the approximation of $L^2$ functions by functions of finite energy. The latter has applications to machine learning (for Markov random fields, for example).     

The survival probability of critical and subcritical branching processes in finite state space Markovian environment

Let ${\left(Z_n\right)}_{n\ge 0}$ be a branching process in a random environment defined by a Markov chain ${\left(X_n\right)}_{n\ge 0}$ with values in a finite state space $\mathbb{X}$. Let ${\mathbb{P}}_i$ be the probability law generated by the trajectories of ${\left(X_n\right)}_{n\ge 0}$ starting at $X_0=i\in \mathbb{X}.$ We study the asymptotic behaviour of the joint survival probability ${\mathbb{P}}_i\left(Z_n>0,X_n=j\right)$, $j\in \mathbb{X}$ as $n\to +\infty$ in the critical and strongly, intermediate and weakly subcritical cases.     

Persistence of sums of correlated increments and clustering in cellular automata

Let $T$ be the first return time to $(?\infty ,0]$ of sums of increments given by a functional of a stationary Markov chain. We determine the asymptotic behavior of the survival probability, $\mathbb{P}(T\ge t)～C{t}^{?1∕2}$ for an explicit constant $C$. Our analysis is based on a connection between the survival probability and the running maximum of the time-reversed process, and relies on a functional central limit theorem for Markov chains. As applications, we recover known clustering results for the 3-color cyclic cellular automaton and the Greenberg–Hastings model, and we prove a new clustering result for the 3-color firefly cellular automaton.     

Cationic para‐phenyl‐substituted α‐diimine nickel catalyzed ethylene and 4‐methyl‐1‐pentene (co)polymerizations via living/controlled chain‐walking

Upon activation with diethylaluminium chloride (Et₂AlCl), a series of phenyl‐substituted α‐diimine nickel precatalysts conducted 4‐methyl‐1‐pentene (4MP) and ethylene (E) (co)polymerizations via controlled chain‐walking to generate branched amorphous polymers with high molecular weight and narrow molecular weight distribution (M_w/M_n < 1.6). The obtained poly(4MP)s were amorphous elastomers with glass transition temperature (T_g) of ?10 ~ ?24 °C, which are higher than that of E‐4MP copolymer ( ? 63.0 °C). At room temperature (25 °C), 4MP polymerization proceeds in a living manner. The microstructures of the produced poly(4MP)s indicated the 2,1‐ and 1,2‐insertion followed by chain‐walking, the latter being predominant. The NMR analyses of the polymers showed that the obtained poly(4MP) possessed methyl, isobutyl, 2,4‐dimethylpentyl and 2‐methylhexyl groups, while the isobutyl and 2,4‐dimethylalkyl branches derived from 4MP were observed in the E‐4MP copolymer. The branch structures and the insertion‐type of monomer were depended on the polymerization temperature, and the content of methyl branch increased with an increase in the polymerization temperature.     

Logging damage and injured tree mortality in tropical forest management

Using insights from the forest ecology literature, we analyze the effect of injured trees on stand composition and carbon stored in above‐ground biomass and the implications for forest management decisions. Results from a Faustmann model with data for a tropical forest on Kalimantan show that up to 50% of the basal area of the stand before harvest can consist of injured trees. Considering injured trees leads to an increase in the amount of carbon in above‐ground biomass of up to 165%. These effects are larger under reduced impact logging than under conventional logging. The effects on land expectation value and cutting cycle are relatively small. The results suggest that considering injured trees in models for tropical forest management is important for the correct assessment of the potential of financial programs to store carbon and conserve forest ecosystem services in managed tropical forests, such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and payment for ecosystem services. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Considering the role of injured trees is important for managing tropical forests
• These trees can cover up to 50% of basal area and contain more than 50% of the carbon stored in above‐ground biomass
• Reduced impact logging leads to a larger basal area of injured trees and more carbon stored in injured trees than conventional logging
• Injured trees play an important role when assessing the potential for carbon storage in the context of payment for forest ecosystem services.

     

基于供应方生产能力的应急物资生产模型

利用期权契约所建立的政企合作储备应急物资模式能够有效解决政府单独储备模式所造成的物资储备量过少或过多而引起的困境。然而由于应急物资的需求特性,若应急物资供应企业采用按单生产方式安排生产储备计划,势必会造成库存水平升高,引发资金周转困难等问题,对政企之间的长期合作造成不利影响。基于此,本文设计了基于供应方生产能力的应急物资生产模型。该模型在政府利用批发价格契约与期权契约采购应急物资的基础上,研究了供应方根据自身生产能力进行柔性生产时的生产与储备问题。通过推导政企双方最优决策后,重点分析了期权权利金,执行价格,加急生产成本等参数对供应方生产决策的影响,并证明与按单生产模式相比,柔性生产模式可有效降低供应方的库存量与生产成本,提高其利润,继而提高整体供应链的利润水平,有助于促进政企之间长期稳定的合作。